Document Type
Article
Abstract
This study evaluates Indonesia’s external sustainability by analyzing exports, imports, and net unilateral transfer payments. The study utilizes Indonesia’s data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019, applying both a long-run dynamic model and a short-run forward-looking model incorporating triple shocks. This research excludes the period from 2020 onwards due to the economic upheaval in Indonesia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. This study concludes that Indonesia’s current account is unsustainable, as neither export nor import variables exhibit a long-term link, hence failing to meet intertemporal budget constraints. Furthermore, imports substantially influence long-term exports, which increase at a slower rate than imports. Economic variations and global oil price volatility also affect exports.
Recommended Citation
Hervino, Aloysius Deno; Insukindro, Insukindro; Setiastuti, Sekar Utami; and Hardi, Amirullah Setya
(2025)
"Triple Shock on External Sustainability in Indonesia,"
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking: Vol. 28:
No.
2, Article 3.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.2512
Available at:
https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/bmeb/vol28/iss2/3
First Page
217
Last Page
228
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Country
Indonesia
Affiliation
Atma Jaya Catholic University of Indonesia
Included in
Econometrics Commons, Economic Theory Commons, International Economics Commons, Macroeconomics Commons
