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Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Document Type

Article

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of variation in the exchange rate of the Indian Rupee (IR) against the US Dollar (USD) under a flexible exchange rate regime using monthly data spanning January 2005 to December 2020. We find that exchange rate volatility is largely affected by its lag value rather than the inflation rate and the interest rate differential. The results of forecast accuracy suggest that the prediction performance of the ARIMA model is better than the VAR model. We also find that apart from other factors, the sharp changes in the exchange rate should be controlled by the economy because its effect will be reflected in the next period and thus creating a chain event to bring further instability in the exchange rate

First Page

179

Last Page

194

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Country

India

Affiliation

Institute for Studies in Industrial Development

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