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Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Document Type

Article

Abstract

The growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as measured by the National Statistical Office of India, is an important metric for monetary policy making. Because GDP is released with a significant lag, particularly for the emerging market economies, this article presents various methodologies for nowcasting and forecasting GDP, using both traditional time series and machine learning methods. Further, considering the importance of forward-looking information, our nowcasting model incorporates financial market data and an economic uncertainty index, in addition to high-frequency traditional macroeconomic indicators. Our findings suggest an improvement in the performance of nowcasting using a hybrid of machine learning and conventional time series methods.

First Page

33

Last Page

54

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Country

India

Affiliation

Reserve Bank of India

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