Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

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The goal of this paper is to analyze the determinants of bank credit declining, whether is dominated by the supply or the credit demand, post the financial crisis in Indonesia. This paper is a sort of New Keynesian approach, which pre assume the imperfectness of the credit market and hence create disequilibrium.Using the switching regression model and Maximum Likelihood Estimation to determine the probability of supply or demand determination, the result shows the existence of excess demand of credit during the crisis period, 1997/ 1998, confirming the credit crunch situation. After the crisis, the condition is reversed, where the credit supply is higher than the credit demand. The two findings implicitely shows the inflexibility of interest rate to equalize the credit market.JEL: D43, D82, E44, E51Keywords : Disintermediasi, kredit, disequilibrium, maximum likelihood, persamaan simultan, switching regression

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