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Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Document Type

Call for Paper

Abstract

We reinvigorate nowcasting models considering structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It emphasizes the need to understand the heterogeneous impact of shocks on agriculture, industry, and services sectors in an emerging market economy (e.g., India). Our findings advocate a bottom-up approach that tracks sectors separately rather than a headline number. Our results suggest including digital-activity index and supply-side disruption index in the post-pandemic period could improve nowcast performance. Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is used to combine data series based on their availability. Among bridging methods, the averaging method is preferred due to its simplicity and flexibility.

First Page

95

Last Page

130

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Country

India

Affiliation

Reserve Bank of India

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