SURVEY MEASURES OF INFLATION EXPECTATION

Authors

Endy Dwi Tjahjono, Bank Indonesia - IndonesiaFollow
Harmanta Harmanta, Bank Indonesia - IndonesiaFollow
Nur M. Adhi Purwato, Bank Indonesia - IndonesiaFollow

Document Type

Article

Abstract

The research objective was to analyze various survey measures of inflation expectation in Indonesia. We found that the heterogeneity of inflation expectation among economic agents and professional forecastersfor short forecast horizon is very low. Survey measures of inflation expectation appear to be forward looking, but only for relatively short horizon. Although the magnitude and length vary across measures of inflation expectation, we find that shock to inflation expectation significantly affect the dynamics of the actual inflation rate. Based on the accuracy, the effect on actual inflation and directional information that they have in predicting current and future inflation, inflation expectation from Consensus Forecast outperformed the others.

Recommended Citation

Tjahjono, Endy Dwi; Harmanta, Harmanta; and Purwato, Nur M. Adhi (2012) "SURVEY MEASURES OF INFLATION EXPECTATION," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking: Vol. 14: No. 4, Article 3.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i4.410
Available at: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/bmeb/vol14/iss4/3

First Page

397

Last Page

432

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Country

Indonesia

Affiliation

Bank Indonesia